business spending increases. Many economists now expect 4 to 5 percent economic growth between now and next year’s election,cheap toms. Yet Bush advisors seem reluctant to tout the obvious turnaround in both the economy and the rip-roaring stock market. Because of their reticence, media headlines continue to sow economic doubt. Newspapers, meanwhile, exclaim that new budget-deficit estimates are another chink in the Bush re-election armor. The headline “Leap in Deficits Instead of Fall Is Seen for U.S.” was on the very same Times front page that featured Dean’s giant color photo. But the new Congressional Budget Office estimates show a huge drop in projected deficits beginning in 2005 and extending for the next eight years. By 2010 the deficit is projected to be less than 2 percent of GDP. By 2013 the CBO estimates a $211 billion surplus. At roughly 4 percent of GDP currently, the U.S. budget gap is only slightly larger that the fiscal red ink posted by France and Germany. Of course, they didn’t fight a war. Importantly, the CBO underscores the point that slumping economic growth is the largest source of the problem, and recovering growth is the largest source of the solution. The Bush strategy of across-the-board tax cuts — which are responsible for only one-fifth of the temporary deficit bulge — were the correct economic-growth solution for fiscal imbalance and the recession cycle. Yet if Dean’s high-tax policies were actually put in place they would wreck the recovery and doom the stock market rise. His liberal domestic-policy proposals would also have grave consequences, inflating the size of government to Ted Kennedyesque proportions. As for foreign policy, Dean would destroy American credibility for at least the next fifty years, giving global terrorists a green light to threaten our safety and security. Culturally Dean would destroy the traditional American family and the social values that keep our society intact. Howard Dean’s left-wing uprising should be squelched before it gains any currency in the public mind. Standing above the fray is no way to do it. Neither are caustic put downs. The Bushies must dig in now. They’ve got to pull out some serious policy analysis and some long knives — before this Dean thing gets out of hand. — Mr. Kudlow is CEO of Kudlow Co.[标签:标题]
The rapidly rising U.S. trade deficit with China is quickly becoming a political issue,Toms Shoes Sale. Many members of Congress are warning that China needs to take action, such as raising its exchange rate, to deal with this problem before it leads to protectionist legislation. A closer examination of the Chinese trade problem, however, suggests that there is less here than meets the eye. In a very short time, Chinese goods have become the largest component of America’s trade deficit. From virtually nothing in the 1980s, our trade deficit with China jumped to $103 billion last year. We exported just $22 billion worth of goods to China while importing $125 billion. By contrast, our trade deficit with Japan last year was 30 percent lower than that with China. It is important to put these numbers in perspective. Although China represented 22 percent of the U.S. trade deficit last year, that is down from 27.5 percent in 1997. Also, China runs a trade deficit with the rest of the world. In 2001, China’s total surplus was $33 billion while its surplus with the U.S. was $83 billion. Among those countries running surpluses with China are Taiwan ($25 billion) and Korea ($11 billion). This suggests that China is not running a trade policy aimed at subsidizing exports or keeping out imports,toms shoes online, otherwise it would be running a surplus with everyone. As a recent Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland study concluded, “China has the largest surplus of any country in its bilateral trade with the United States, not because its market is closed, but largely because it has emerged as a major global production base for labor-intensive manufactured goods.” The Fed study goes on to note that most of our imports from China have not displaced domestic
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