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en them who can tell you who’s right, they write, enlisting venerable pundits from all points of the ideological spectrum, including my TIME colleague Joe Klein, to buttress the claim. Anyone who claims to know who is going to win is blowing smoke, Joe wrote on this blog earlier in the week.Discretion may be the better part of valor. But battleground polls paint a clear picture of a race in which Barack Obama has consistently held a narrow but stubborn lead.(MORE: Viewpoints: Why We re Voting for Obama)The polls are not hilariously inconclusive, as Joe writes. They re fairly static. If anything, battleground surveys over the past two or three days have shown signs that Obama s slim edge is slightly widening as we approach the finish line.Take, for example, this recent batch of 11 swing-state polls, collated by Political Wire and covering nine battleground states. Romney is ahead in two: one in Colorado and one in Virginia, both conducted by right-leaning outlets (Rasmussen and Newsmax/Zogby, respectively). He s also tied in two (from the same two pollsters). Obama leads in seven. Yesterday Romney s political director, Rich Beeson, said Obama s Midwestern firewall — Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin — was burning. In this daily sample,Hoodies tommy hilfiger, the incumbent is up by six in Iowa, by six in Ohio and by three in Wisconsin, with an additional Newsmax survey from Wisconsin showing the race knotted. Another Badger State poll, released yesterday by Marquette Law School, which was both the most bullish on Scott Walker s chances of surviving his June recall election and, ultimately, the most accurate, had Obama ahead by eight.Individual polls are wrong much of the time, but they are rarely wrong in aggregate. The likelihood that Obama s apparent advantage comes through flawed or systematically biased polling decreases as the sample size grows. So let s look at the polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics of the 12 states purportedly in play. (I am including Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania because of the Romney camp s expressions of confidence,tommy hilfiger polo shirts for men, though as I wrote yesterday, it smacks of spin.) According to polling averages from those dozen battlegrounds, Romney leads in three: North Carolina (by 3.8 points), Florida (by 1.2 points) and Virginia (by 0.5 points). Obama leads in nine. In only one of those — Colorado, where the President leads on average by 0.6 points — is his average margin as small as Romney s edges in Florida and Virginia, two states the GOP nominee badly needs to win.(MORE: Viewpoints: The Case for Barack Obama)Now zoom in on Ohio, the state both sides must have. (Nate Silver estimates it s roughly as likely to be the decisive battleground as the other 49 states put together.) RealClear s list of Ohio polls isn t completely comprehensive — it s missing, perhaps among others, a poll released yesterday from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that showed Obama up five — but it is certainly an indicator of the trend. In the 11 Buckeye State surveys recorded since the third debate, Romney leads in one, from right-leaning Rasmussen. Obama has the edge in nine, with one tie (also from Rasmussen). On average, the President leads by 2.3 points.Could Romney win Ohio? Of course. Could he win the election? Absolutely. I am not suggesting that Obama be crowned. Smart Republicans, including those affiliated with the Romney campaign, have consistently argued that the polling averages are wrong because the turnout models have been flawed. The national polls do show a toss-up race, which casts some doubt on the integrity of state polling. Pollster Mark Blumenthal estimates that the potential for a rare black swan polling failure as big as the national polls of 1980 or 1992 is still real,tommy hilfiger outlet stores, given past experience — amounting to a roughly 1-in-3 chance that such an error would affect the outcome of states like Ohio and Iowa. The race is tight, and Romney has a real and significant shot at winning. Perhaps reporters and pundits are better off withholding predictions on who will win. After all,tommy hilfiger shop, the media s track record oRelated articles:


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me, qui gère les affaires courantes en attendant un gouvernement de plein exercice, vient de bloquer une augmentation de salaire de 1 % négociée entre syndicats et direction dans les mines de grès, sous prétexte que la limite pour l’année en cours a été fixée à 0,3 % ! Le syndicat libéral va porter plainte auprès du Conseil de l’Europe pour non-respect de la concertation sociale.Di Rupo, s’il réussit à former un gouvernement, risque très vite d’affronter des mouvements sociaux.Pressions sur les wallons Le ministre-président flamand Kris Peeters appelle les Wallons à appliquer la règle d’or. « La Flandre a un budget 2011 en équilibre. Quand la Wallonie en fera-t-elle de même ? Et Bruxelles ? » 
a-t-il déclaré. Le commissaire européen au Commerce, Karel 
De Gucht, a déclaré, cette semaine, qu’il « y a trop de handicapés en Belgique ». Certains pourraient travailler,rayban moins cher, estime-t-il. 
Il n’en fallait pas plus pour que la NVA, ouvertement séparatiste, 
accuse la Wallonie d’avoir plus de handicapés que la Flandre.(1) Réaction publiée dans 
le magazine de la FGTB (Syndicats) de juillet 2011. Françoise Germain-Robin 0 commentaire La discussion est fermée : vous ne pouvez pas poster de nouveaux commentaires.Damas et Alger, dernières capitales arabes à ne pas reconnaître officiellement les rebelles. Le drapeau des insurgés flotte depuis lundi sur l’ambassade libyenne à Alger. Mais la diplomatie algérienne restait hier encore muette, se refusant à reconnaître officiellement le Conseil national de transition (CNT). En mars, seules 
l’Algérie et la Syrie s’étaient opposées, au sein de la Ligue arabe, à l’intervention de l’Otan. Alger et Damas sont aujourd’hui les dernières capitales arabes à ne pas reconnaître officiellement la légitimité politique de la rébellion. Une distance qui alimente la polémique dans la presse algérienne, certains titres reprochant au pouvoir de n’avoir jamais demandé officiellement le départ de Mouammar Kadhafi. Le quotidien arabophone El Khabar entrevoit ainsi des « relations tendues » entre l’Algérie et son « plus grand voisin du Maghreb ». « Jouant sur l’effet de repoussoir des événements qui secouent la Syrie et la Libye, les autorités algériennes font traîner les choses, espérant que (...) Kadhafi, soutenu politiquement par la diplomatie algérienne, pourrait éventuellement se sortir du guêpier dans lequel il s’est fourré. La chute du clan de Tripoli place inévitablement les autorités algériennes dans l’œil du cyclone », estimait, lundi,ray ban aviator pas cher, Omar Belhouchet, le directeur du quotidien El Watan,lunettes pas cher, dans son éditorial. Pour des raisons internes, le pouvoir algérien, confronté à un climat social délétère, incapable d’engager des réformes politiques, voit certainement d’un mauvais œil la chute d’un dictateur allié. Sur le plan diplomatique, les relations entre Alger et le CNT sont d’autant plus orageuses que les rebelles accusent les autorités algériennes d’avoir fourni des armes aux troupes de Kadhafi. Alger dément fermement, mais la suspicion alimente en Libye un fort sentiment anti-algérien. Au point que l’ambassade algérienne à Tripoli a été la cible, dans la nuit de dimanche à lundi, d’une « série de violations ». Dans une lettre d’excuses, Mahmoud Chemam, porte-parole du CNT, assure que les rebelles « sont prêts à ouvrir une nouvelle page » avec Alger. Une main tendue qui ne dissipe pas les opportunes inquiétudes du pouvoir algérien sur les répliques du conflit libyen, alors que le pays est en proie à une recrudescence des actes terroristes. L’Algérie, qui partage une longue frontière désertique avec la Libye, craint que les groupes liés à Aqmi (al-Qaida au Maghreb islamique – NDLR) ne profitent de l’arrivée massive d’armes et de munitions acheminées par des trafiquants depuis les arsenaux libyens pillés. Rosa Moussaoui 20 commentaires La discussion est fermée : vous ne pouvez pas poste
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